- 美國會在 2026 年入侵格陵蘭嗎？3¢
The absence of any official U.S. statements, policy documents, or military planning signals toward Greenland underpins the 97.4% implied probability that no invasion will occur in 2026. Greenland remains Danish territory and a NATO ally, with longstanding U.S. access to the Thule Air Base supporting shared defense and Arctic monitoring objectives. No recent diplomatic breakdowns, resource disputes, or geopolitical escalations involving Denmark, Russia, or China have altered this baseline. Traders reflect this stable framework through consistent pricing that treats military action against an alliance partner as structurally improbable. Late developments such as a fundamental shift in Danish NATO commitments or an unforeseen Arctic security crisis could theoretically reopen discussion, though such triggers remain outside current evidence.
規則
如果美國在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前發動旨在控制格陵蘭陸地領土任何部分的軍事攻勢，此市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 就本市場而言，格陵蘭的陸地領土是指截至市場建立時，丹麥承認屬於丹麥王國境內格陵蘭自治領土的所有領土。 本市場的結算依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。