- 綠黨能否獲得至少20%的所有有效第二選票？4¢
- Grüne 會贏得所有有效第二票的 14% 至 17% 嗎？48¢
- 綠黨的有效第二選票會少於14%嗎？23¢
- 綠黨在所有有效的第二選票中會贏得17%到20%嗎？28¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the Greens holding steady in the mid-to-high teens, with the most recent surveys from Infratest dimap, Civey, Forsa, and INSA placing them between 15% and 18%. This range reflects modest gains in some late-August fieldwork but no sustained breakout, amid a crowded field where CDU, Linke, and AfD are each polling in the high teens or low twenties. The party’s support has remained below its 18.4% result from the 2023 repeat election, constrained by the broader left-of-center fragmentation and limited movement in direct mayoral preference polls for its lead candidate. With two weeks remaining, the 14-17% and 17-20% brackets therefore capture the bulk of current survey outcomes and the narrow band of plausible final results.