- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?9¢9 %
Ongoing Chinese naval deployments, including the Liaoning carrier group operating beyond the first island chain in late October 2026, alongside routine PLA air and maritime patrols around Taiwan, reflect sustained gray-zone pressure rather than preparations for full-scale invasion. Beijing's responses to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s October 10 National Day address reiterated standard positions on sovereignty while focusing on deterrence of perceived independence moves. The CCP’s Fifth Plenum in late October emphasized internal party discipline and PLA purges, which analysts link to reduced near-term conflict risks as leadership prioritizes consolidation. Traders’ 91.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with this pattern of calibrated coercion and the absence of crossing points like large-scale amphibious mobilization. Scenarios such as accidental escalation or abrupt policy shifts by major powers remain the primary variables that could adjust odds before the 2027 resolution date.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.