- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?45¢45 %
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?15¢15 %
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?13¢13 %
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?11¢11 %
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?7¢7 %
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?3¢3 %
- Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
3 %45,2 %Marine Le PenVol. 5,1 mil. $
14,7 %David LisnardVol. 6,8 mil. $
12,5 %Jean-Luc MélenchonVol. 3,3 mil. $
1 %10,5 %Édouard PhilippeVol. 3 mil. $
1 %7,1 %Christine LagardeVol. 2,7 mil. $
2,8 %Raphaël GlucksmannVol. 3,4 mil. $
2,4 %François HollandeVol. 3 mil. $
2,3 %Jordan BardellaVol. 3,5 mil. $
2,3 %Dominique de VillepinVol. 3,4 mil. $
0,9 %Bruno RetailleauVol. 3,7 mil. $
0,7 %Éric ZemmourVol. 3,5 mil. $
0,5 %Gabriel AttalVol. 3,7 mil. $
Marine Le Pen leads the market at 45.1% due to her consistent first-round polling strength near 35% for the Rassemblement National, positioning her as the clear frontrunner to reach the 2027 runoff while drawing broad transfers in hypothetical second-round matchups. David Lisnard’s 14.5% share reflects recent gains in October surveys, where he reached 7–9% amid his Nouvelle Énergie movement’s growth and appeal among mayors and local voters, outpacing some traditional right-wing rivals. Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12.5% tracks his steady left-wing base near 17%, while Édouard Philippe and Christine Lagarde trail amid ongoing centrist fragmentation that has split moderate support. Recent polling volatility, including Lisnard’s upward movement and Philippe’s declines, has reinforced trader focus on these dynamics ahead of the April first round.
Reguli
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).