- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?39¢39 %
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?19¢19 %
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?13¢13 %
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?4¢4 %
- Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?4¢4 %
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?3¢3 %
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2¢2 %
- Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2¢2 %
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2¢2 %
- Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1¢1 %
- Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1¢1 %
- Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1¢1 %
6 %38,6 %J.D. VanceVol. 16,9 mil. $
2 %19,1 %Marco RubioVol. 11,5 mil. $
13,3 %Ron DeSantisVol. 16,4 mil. $
2 %3,8 %Glenn YoungkinVol. 9,1 mil. $
1 %3,6 %Tucker CarlsonVol. 14 mil. $
2,6 %Ted CruzVol. 20 mil. $
2,3 %Thomas MassieVol. 6,4 mil. $
1 %1,9 %Brian KempVol. 18,5 mil. $
1,7 %Donald Trump Jr.Vol. 9,8 mil. $
1,3 %Ivanka TrumpVol. 9 mil. $
1 %1,3 %John McEnteeVol. 1,4 mil. $
1 %1,2 %Joe KentVol. 9,9 mil. $
Recent Republican midterm losses, including Democratic gains in Congress amid the Iran conflict and economic pressures, have heightened uncertainty in the 2028 nomination race and kept top probabilities closely matched. Trader consensus places Robert F. Kennedy Jr. narrowly ahead of J.D. Vance, with Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis also active, as participants weigh post-election positioning by administration figures and potential challengers. Vance has sought to differentiate on domestic priorities while others highlight alternative paths forward. Upcoming developments such as primary filing deadlines, candidate announcements, and shifts in polling among Republican voters could create separation by clarifying coalition support and viability.
Reguli
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.