- Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?28¢28 %
- Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?18¢18 %
- Will Talya Lankri be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?6¢6 %
- Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?5¢5 %
- Will Yair Golan be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?5¢5 %
- Will Avi Dichter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?5¢5 %
- Will Elazar Stern be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?4¢4 %
- Will Matan Kahana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?4¢4 %
- Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?4¢4 %
- Will Yoav Segalovich be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?4¢4 %
- Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?3¢3 %
- Will Ofer Winter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?3¢3 %
- 16 %28,5 %No Next Minister by Feb 28Vol. 56,3 K $
3 %17,5 %Yoram CohenVol. 13,3 K $
5,9 %Talya LankriVol. 8,3 K $
5,2 %Itamar Ben GvirVol. 6,5 K $
4,8 %Yair GolanVol. 2,3 K $
4,8 %Avi DichterVol. 2,5 K $
4 %4 %Elazar SternVol. 4,2 K $
3,9 %Matan KahanaVol. 12,3 K $
3,9 %Gideon Sa’arVol. 2,5 K $
1 %3,8 %Yoav SegalovichVol. 1,9 K $
3,3 %Amir OhanaVol. 1,9 K $
3 %Ofer WinterVol. 9,6 K $
Post-election coalition talks after Israel's October 27 vote have produced a fragmented Knesset with no bloc holding a clear majority, keeping the National Security Ministry assignment highly uncertain among numerous contenders. Current holder Itamar Ben-Gvir faces reported limits from Likud on retaining the role or advancing to defense, while opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot leads early recommendations for the mandate amid Arab party support and partner vetoes over coalitions. The tight pricing across multiple names reflects unresolved negotiations, party red lines on portfolios, and timelines extending potentially beyond February, with separation likely hinging on whether a unity arrangement, minority government backed externally, or renewed right-wing bloc emerges to allocate the position.
Reguli
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.