- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?9¢9 %
Phase II of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire remains stalled over sequencing disputes between Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawals from Gaza. Israel insists on complete demilitarization, including tunnels and weapons, before any further pullback beyond the current Yellow Line, while Hamas and mediators have pushed for linked, phased steps tied to verified Israeli compliance and reconstruction. Since the October 2025 agreement, low-level violations persist, with the IDF reporting dozens of incidents—including crossings and attacks—between mid-October and early November 2026, prompting continued targeted strikes. Israel maintains control over roughly 53-70% of the territory, restricting aid and blocking full entry of the technocratic National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. US-backed efforts via the Board of Peace, including recent envoy meetings with Hamas representatives and Netanyahu, seek to advance a roadmap for phased disarmament and an international stabilization force, though progress hinges on resolving these core disagreements amid ongoing mediation by Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey.
Regler
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.