- Iran leadership change by November 30?4¢4 %
- Iran leadership change by December 31?9¢9 %
- Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?24¢24 %
- 1 %4,3 %November 30Volum 824,9k $
- 8,5 %December 31Volum 5,9 mill. $
- 1 %24 %June 30, 2027Volum 541,2k $
Iran’s political landscape remains shaped by the March 2026 succession that installed Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader following his father’s death in US-Israeli strikes. Recent October and early November 2026 developments center on the new leader’s series of closed-door meetings with senior officials, including security chief Mohsen Rezaei, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and President Masoud Pezeshkian, alongside directives on Strait of Hormuz security and military readiness. These steps coincide with Pezeshkian’s statements that Khamenei granted the government expanded authority for indirect US talks aimed at ending the “neither war nor peace” status, conditional on sanctions relief and other demands. Ongoing mediation involving Qatar and regional states, coupled with Khamenei’s public warnings against concessions and continued emphasis on deterrence, sustains uncertainty over institutional stability and any near-term leadership transition.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.