- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?45¢45 %
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?15¢15 %
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?13¢13 %
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?11¢11 %
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?7¢7 %
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?3¢3 %
- Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1 %
2 %44,5 %Marine Le PenVolum 5,1 mill. $
1 %15,1 %David LisnardVolum 6,7 mill. $
12,5 %Jean-Luc MélenchonVolum 3,2 mill. $
1 %10,5 %Édouard PhilippeVolum 3 mill. $
6,9 %Christine LagardeVolum 2,6 mill. $
3 %Raphaël GlucksmannVolum 3,4 mill. $
2,5 %François HollandeVolum 3 mill. $
2,5 %Dominique de VillepinVolum 3,4 mill. $
2,3 %Jordan BardellaVolum 3,5 mill. $
0,8 %Bruno RetailleauVolum 3,7 mill. $
0,7 %Éric ZemmourVolum 3,4 mill. $
0,6 %Gabriel AttalVolum 3,7 mill. $
Marine Le Pen leads the market at 44.3% due to her sustained first-round polling average near 35% and consistent second-round advantages across tested matchups, reflecting Rassemblement National strength six months before the April 2027 vote. David Lisnard’s 15.3% share aligns with his recent polling gains to 6-9% in October-November surveys and online momentum that has positioned him ahead of Bruno Retailleau in some right-wing scenarios. Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12.5% tracks his stable second-place poll standing near 17%, while Édouard Philippe’s 10.5% reflects his recent decline amid centrist fragmentation involving Gabriel Attal and others. These trader-implied probabilities capture the effects of ongoing candidate positioning and polling trends that favor polarization into a likely Le Pen-led runoff.
Regler
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).