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General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abiy Ahmed’s dominant position reflects his Prosperity Party’s landslide June 2026 parliamentary victory, which delivered roughly 90 percent of contested seats and a clear path to reappointment when the new legislature convenes in October. Fragmented opposition, limited participation in insecure regions, and the party’s control of the House of Peoples’ Representatives have left few viable alternatives under Ethiopia’s parliamentary system. Ongoing national dialogue on possible constitutional or executive-structure changes, persistent insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, and post-election security dynamics in Tigray represent the main variables that could still influence outcomes before formal selection.