- 미국, 2026년 8월 31일까지 이란 봉쇄 해제 발표?3¢
- 미국, 2026년 12월 31일까지 이란 봉쇄 해제 발표?70¢
- 미국, 2026년 9월 30일까지 이란 봉쇄 해제 발표?28¢
- 미국, 2026년 10월 31일까지 이란 봉쇄 종료 발표?47¢
- 미국, 2026년 9월 8일까지 이란 봉쇄 해제 발표?7¢
- 미국, 2026년 9월 22일까지 이란 봉쇄 해제 발표?21¢
- 미국, 2026년 9월 15일까지 이란의 봉쇄 해제 발표?13¢
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
The ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports, reimposed in mid-July 2026 after the breakdown of the June memorandum of understanding, remains in place amid renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments include Iranian parliamentary moves to restrict transit by US- and Israel-linked vessels, impose tolls, and coordinate shipping routes with Oman, alongside continued CENTCOM enforcement actions that have redirected dozens of ships. Trader assessments of an imminent US announcement ending the blockade reflect the interplay between diplomatic channels, persistent Iranian efforts to assert control over the strait, and US insistence on linking any de-escalation to broader agreements on sanctions relief, nuclear issues, or cessation of attacks on commercial traffic. Scheduled talks or further strikes could shift the timeline, while the absence of verified progress on core disputes sustains uncertainty around resolution conditions.