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The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation, leads the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial race with strong polling margins ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data from July, show Ferraço at 38–41% in first-round scenarios against Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) at 27–30%, with Ferraço also favored in runoff matchups by 10+ points. His broad coalition, high approval ratings near 76%, and emphasis on fiscal continuity and public security have consolidated support. Pazolini, the former Vitória mayor who launched his candidacy in early August, trails as the clearest challenger but faces structural disadvantages as a non-incumbent. Other confirmed candidates, such as Helder Salomão (PT), register in single digits and appear unlikely to advance. Trader consensus reflects Ferraço’s consistent polling edge and incumbency advantages entering the final campaign stretch.