- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be less than 150,000?2¢2%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 150,000 and 170,000?5¢5%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 170,000 and 190,000?21¢21%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 190,000 and 210,000?37¢37%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 210,000 and 230,000?29¢29%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 230,000 and 250,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be 250,000 or more?7¢7%
The uncompetitive nature of Wyoming’s November 3 Senate contest, with Harriet Hageman holding a projected 33-point lead over James Byrd in a solidly Republican state, anchors trader expectations for turnout near historical midterm levels around 180,000–200,000 votes. An open gubernatorial race introduces a modest wildcard that could modestly lift participation, while typical midterm drop-off from presidential-year totals, limited Democratic mobilization, and variable rural engagement exert downward pressure. Weather on Election Day and patterns in early and absentee ballots remain key variables that could shift final certified totals within the closely matched 170K–210K range without altering the underlying dynamics.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.