- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?90¢
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by September 25, 2026?<1¢
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?41¢
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 260M by September 25, 2026?10¢
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by September 25, 2026?3¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
US commercial crude oil inventories have declined sharply in recent months amid elevated exports, reduced net imports, and elevated refinery runs near 17 million barrels per day. Latest EIA data showed total stocks (including SPR) at 718.64 million barrels for the week ending August 21, 2026, with commercial holdings near multi-year lows around 429 million barrels. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions have supported strong foreign demand for US crude while SPR releases continue, amplifying weekly draws. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects commercial stocks will stay below the five-year average through year-end due to these supply-demand imbalances. The next weekly inventory report on September 2 and subsequent releases through late September will provide key updates on the trajectory into the September 25 resolution window.