- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?31¢
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31?<1¢
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 255M by August 31?<1¢
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 240M by August 31?<1¢
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 225M by August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
US commercial crude oil inventories stood at 428.8 million barrels for the week ending August 14, 2026, following a 4.4 million barrel build, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continued its sharp drawdown to around 293 million barrels amid ongoing emergency releases tied to Middle East supply disruptions. High refinery utilization above 95 percent, elevated US crude exports, and reduced net imports have tightened the commercial balance relative to the five-year average, though weekly builds can offset draws. The EIA's next Weekly Petroleum Status Report, due August 26, will provide the final inventory reading before the August 28 resolution and remains the key near-term catalyst for trader positioning on any threshold level.