Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?
- Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?43¢
- Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30?11¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces have conducted targeted strikes on Russian positions near Uspenivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast earlier in 2026, yet Russian control of the settlement and surrounding lines has held amid broader frontline dynamics. Russian units continue incremental advances in Donetsk directions such as Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, while Ukrainian operations emphasize long-range drone and missile campaigns against Russian logistics, refineries, and Black Sea assets rather than localized ground counteroffensives. No confirmed Ukrainian mechanized re-entry into Uspenivka has occurred in recent months, reflecting resource constraints, Russian defensive preparations, and the prioritization of asymmetric strikes. Traders assess re-entry probabilities against these sustained Russian pressure points and the absence of major Ukrainian ground initiatives in the sector, with any shift dependent on future force reallocations or negotiated pauses.