- Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?4¢4%
Russian forces continue limited offensive operations near Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to advance toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Ukrainian units have repelled multiple assaults in the Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka sectors in recent days, including attempts near Mykolaivka, while conducting strikes against infiltrators and drone control points. Reporting from late October noted small Russian advances or infiltration on the southern outskirts, though Ukrainian sources describe these as contained gray-zone actions without confirmed control of key terrain. Broader Russian progress across the Donbas front remains slow amid Ukrainian drone interdiction, artillery, and terrain constraints, with no major confirmed gains reported in the immediate area as of mid-November. Ongoing diplomatic talks have not altered frontline dynamics, and market resolution hinges on verified control per Institute for the Study of War mapping.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.