- Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by September 30?53¢
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by September 30?14¢
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12B by September 30?9¢
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11B by September 30?21¢
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by September 30?7¢
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by September 30?7¢
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $10.25B by September 30?54¢
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $9.75B by September 30?65¢
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by September 30?8¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using official regular-hours trading prices published for the company’s listed equities on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be the relevant Market Cap figure displayed on https://www.nasdaq.com/ as well as official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Kraken’s parent Payward maintains a $20 billion post-money valuation from its November 2025 primary round that included an $800 million raise and a $200 million strategic investment from Citadel Securities, yet secondary-market platforms such as Forge currently imply equity values near $12.8 billion as of September 1, 2026. Deutsche Börse’s April 2026 secondary purchase priced the company at roughly $13.3 billion, establishing a benchmark that reflects illiquidity discounts ahead of any IPO. Recent acquisitions totaling approximately $3 billion, including NinjaTrader and Reap, have expanded derivatives and stablecoin capabilities while supporting 2025 revenue of $2.2 billion and continued Q2 2026 growth. Trader sentiment for near-term valuation thresholds by September 30 hinges on secondary liquidity, any new primary financing, and broader crypto-market risk appetite, with IPO timing now viewed as more likely 2027.