- Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?81¢81%
A Jackson Pollock masterpiece fetching $181 million at Christie’s in May 2026 has already cleared the $150 million threshold this year, anchoring the market’s strong 85% implied probability for Yes. Blue-chip demand remains robust, evidenced by Christie’s recent London sales totaling $289 million during Frieze Week, including a heavily guaranteed Peter Simon collection that achieved near its high estimate with exceptional sell-through rates. Precedent from the 2025 Klimt record and steady institutional and private-buyer interest in trophy modern works support expectations that the November New York marquee auctions or a late private transaction could deliver another nine-figure result before year-end. While the art market can be unpredictable at the absolute top end, the combination of an established benchmark sale and positive momentum in guaranteed, high-quality offerings gives traders clear confidence in crossing the line again by December 31.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".