- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?88¢88%
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?10¢10%
- 4%88%Spider-Man: Brand New Day$996.4k Vol.
- 3%10.4%Avengers: Doomsday$1.7m Vol.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day has locked in frontrunner status for 2026’s highest-grossing film through its record $2.52 billion worldwide haul, driven by the largest domestic opening weekend ever at $360 million and sustained performance that outpaced every other release by more than $700 million. The July 31 Sony/Marvel title benefited from strong critical reception, broad audience appeal, and premium-format play that pushed it past historical benchmarks like The Force Awakens domestically. Avengers: Doomsday remains the only credible challenger at 9.2% implied probability thanks to its massive December 18 release window and presales exceeding $100 million worldwide, yet its late-year timing leaves little runway to close the gap. Other contenders, including The Odyssey and Toy Story 5, have already finished their runs well below the leader, reinforcing trader consensus around the completed Spider-Man campaign.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.