- Will the Republican Party win the WI-08 House seat?90¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat?12¢
Incumbent Republican Tony Wied holds a strong structural edge in Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District, a seat rated Solid or Likely Republican by multiple forecasters and carrying an R+8 partisan lean. Wied, who took office in late 2024 after winning the prior cycle, benefits from incumbency advantages and the district’s consistent Republican performance, including an 8.5-point Trump margin in 2024. Democrat Rick Crosson, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and Green Bay school board member who won a three-way primary, has focused criticism on Wied’s response to national issues while highlighting his own military background. The sole scheduled debate on October 22 and the start of early voting on October 20 represent the main near-term events, yet neither has shifted the race into competitive territory according to current assessments. Trader pricing reflects these district fundamentals and limited challenger momentum.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).