- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026?66¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by September 30, 2026?16¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by September 30, 2026?26¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by September 30, 2026?14¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by September 30, 2026?12¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by September 30, 2026?18¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by September 30, 2026?>99¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by September 30, 2026?94¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by September 30, 2026?60¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by September 30, 2026?6¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?26¢
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by September 30, 2026?5¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Trump’s established pattern of direct public criticism via Truth Social posts, rallies, and interviews continues to shape trader assessments for targets by September 30, 2026. As president, he has recently labeled Iran a “failed nation” that is “dead,” mocked specific reporters such as Maggie Haberman of the New York Times, and directed pointed remarks at figures including Ilhan Omar. These statements align with ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges and preparations for a Republican midterm convention in September ahead of November elections. The short window increases focus on whether fresh policy disputes, media coverage, or campaign events prompt additional personal attacks meeting the market’s insult criteria. Historical frequency of such remarks supports elevated probabilities for media or opposition targets, while outcomes hinge on verifiable public statements through the deadline.