- Will Pete Hegseth be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?45¢45%
- Will none of these people be impeached by December 31, 2027?24¢24%
- Will Donald Trump be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?14¢14%
- Will Clarence Thomas be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?8¢8%
- Will Todd Blanche be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?8¢8%
- Will Howard Lutnick be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?7¢7%
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?4¢4%
- Will JD Vance be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?<1¢<1%
- Will Samuel Alito be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?<1¢<1%
The tight clustering of implied probabilities among Clarence Thomas, Howard Lutnick, and Pete Hegseth reflects trader focus on multiple federal officials facing sustained congressional scrutiny over ethics, confirmation-related conduct, and executive-branch performance. Thomas draws attention from prior ethics inquiries and Supreme Court impeachment resolutions, while Lutnick and Hegseth face monitoring tied to their cabinet roles and any emerging oversight hearings or allegations. With no single dominant catalyst in recent weeks, the market prices in parallel paths for House action before the 2027 deadline, tempered by the high bar for Senate conviction. Developments such as new investigative findings, committee votes, or shifts in House majority dynamics could widen gaps, whereas absence of formal articles keeps the field compressed and elevates the "nobody" outcome.
Rules
This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.