- Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?38¢
- Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?44¢
- Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?35¢
- Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026?41¢
- Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?24¢
- Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?75¢
- Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?42¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Intensified U.S.-Mexico security cooperation and over $100 million in new State Department rewards announced in August 2026 target remaining CJNG figures after the early-2026 death of leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”). Key fugitives now include Juan Carlos Valencia González (“Pelón”), identified as a likely successor, alongside others such as Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán and Ricardo Ruiz Velasco, with fresh federal indictments and multimillion-dollar bounties. Recent operations have produced dozens of CJNG arrests in Hidalgo, Jalisco, and Michoacán in mid-to-late August, building on earlier 2026 captures including Audias Flores Silva. Sinaloa Cartel fragmentation, extraditions, and sentencing of high-profile members further shape trader focus on which additional named leaders face arrest or extradition before year-end.