- Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?6¢6%
- Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?4¢4%
- Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?13¢13%
- Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?38¢38%
- Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?8¢8%
- Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?8¢8%
- Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026?8¢8%
- Will Iván Mordisco be arrested in 2026?8¢8%
Recent enforcement actions highlight intensified bilateral cooperation between U.S. agencies such as the DEA and Mexican authorities, including the Navy and federal security forces, through joint task forces and intelligence sharing. In October and early November 2026, Mexico arrested several regional commanders linked to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, including Ivan Cazarin Molina in Jalisco and Samuel De la Cruz Anaya in Veracruz, alongside figures from smaller groups and Sinaloa-linked networks. These operations followed earlier 2026 designations of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and targeted high-value individuals involved in drug trafficking, extortion, and fuel theft. Ongoing investigations into financial networks and corruption cases, such as the recent arrest of a Mexican judge in Colombia on related bribery charges, continue to shape prospects for additional arrests before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.