Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
- Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?<1¢
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?95¢
- Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?<1¢
- Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?<1¢
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?1¢
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?86¢
- Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?9¢
- Will Romeu Zema qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?2¢
- Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?2¢
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Lula da Silva maintains a strong lead in first-round polling near 41-42 percent as the incumbent seeking a fourth term, while Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee backed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, holds second place around 33 percent. Fragmented support among other right-leaning contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema has limited consolidation ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent surveys show Lula ahead in simulated runoffs by narrow margins, with trader consensus reflecting these structural advantages despite Flávio’s June audio revelations and family reconciliation in July. Official campaigning begins after mid-August registrations, with scheduled debates and the potential October 25 runoff shaping further shifts.