- Will Trump leave China before November 18?<1¢<1%
- Will Trump leave China on November 18?2¢2%
- Will Trump leave China on November 19?90¢90%
- Will Trump leave China on November 20?9¢9%
- Will Trump leave China on November 21?1¢1%
- Will Trump leave China on November 22?1¢1%
- Will Trump leave China after November 22?<1¢<1%
- Will Trump not visit China by November 22?2¢2%
- 49%0.7%Before November 18$905.6 Vol.
- 33%1.9%November 18$1.2k Vol.
- 42%90%November 19$2.7k Vol.
- 41%9%November 20$1.1k Vol.
- 33%1.2%November 21$756.8 Vol.
- 22%1.1%November 22$615.2 Vol.
- 26%0.2%After November 22$691.1 Vol.
- 24%1.5%No visit by November 22$681.6 Vol.
The APEC leaders’ meeting scheduled for November 18-19 in Shenzhen anchors trader consensus around a November 19 departure at 65.5 percent. Official statements from President Trump on November 8 confirmed attendance for bilateral talks with Xi Jinping and possible trilateral engagement involving Putin, aligning with the two-day summit format. Recent diplomatic activity, including a November 11 call between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang to finalize arrangements, reinforces the narrow timeline. Lower probabilities on November 20 or later reflect limited scope for schedule extensions, while the minimal share on no visit by November 22 indicates broad acceptance that the trip will occur as planned. Market pricing thus tracks the fixed summit dates and associated logistical constraints rather than speculative changes.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins between market creation and November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins a visit to China before November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After November 22”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by November 22”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.