- Will the median home value in Dallas Metro be less than $379,000 on December 31?33¢33%
- Will the median home value in Dallas Metro be between $379,000 and $383,000 on December 31?31¢31%
- Will the median home value in Dallas Metro be between $383,000 and $387,000 on December 31?37¢37%
- Will the median home value in Dallas Metro be between $387,000 and $391,000 on December 31?34¢34%
- Will the median home value in Dallas Metro be between $391,000 and $395,000 on December 31?24¢24%
- Will the median home value in Dallas Metro be between $395,000 and $399,000 on December 31?24¢24%
- Will the median home value in Dallas Metro be at least $399,000 on December 31?24¢24%
Elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 7.4% and softening buyer demand represent the dominant forces anchoring trader sentiment for Dallas-Fort Worth median home values at year-end. Recent MetroTex and Realtor.com data through September show median sale prices around $380,000–$385,000 with year-over-year declines of 1–2%, while Zillow’s ZHVI stood at $358,242, reflecting reduced transaction volumes, 4.3–4.5 months of inventory, and increased price reductions. These conditions have produced tightly clustered market-implied odds across the $383K–$391K range, underscoring uncertainty over whether seasonal stabilization, persistent high financing costs, or modest inventory absorption will tip the median higher or lower by December 31. Traders appear focused on near-term rate trajectory and pending-sales trends as key swing factors in this contested band.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Dallas, Texas Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Dallas, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2899734). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000 square feet, which is the median home size in the Dallas, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/64)