- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?24¢24%
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?15¢15%
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?22¢22%
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?16¢16%
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?9¢9%
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T?4¢4%
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?3¢3%
- Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?3¢3%
- 23.8%<$1T$138.9k Vol.
- 1%15.3%$1.0T–$1.25T$115.1k Vol.
- 2%21.9%$1.25T–$1.5T$145.7k Vol.
- 3%16%$1.5T–$1.75T$128.7k Vol.
- 1%9%$1.75T–$2.0T$141.4k Vol.
- 3.8%$2.0T–$2.25T$6k Vol.
- 2.6%$2.25T–$2.5T$38k Vol.
- 2.7%$2.5T+$88.3k Vol.
Trader consensus on OpenAI's IPO valuation remains closely divided, with the sub-$1 trillion and $1.25–1.5 trillion brackets holding the highest implied probabilities at 23.3% and 22.6% respectively. This fragmentation stems from uncertainty over revenue growth trajectories, margin expansion potential from enterprise AI adoption, and prevailing tech-sector multiples amid competitive pressures from rivals. Key swing factors include infrastructure scaling costs, regulatory exposure, and broader market conditions such as Treasury yields influencing risk appetite. Any confirmed IPO timeline or major partnership updates could alter these market-implied odds, while historical precedents for high-growth tech listings underscore the range of possible outcomes.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.