- Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1%
- Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1%
- Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1%
- Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1%
- Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1%
- Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?<1¢<1%
- Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?2¢2%
- Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?93¢93%
- 1%0.5%<$7.5B$83k Vol.
- 0.4%$7.5B–$10B$105.8k Vol.
- 0.8%$10B–$12.5B$97.3k Vol.
- 0.3%$12.5B–$15B$109.5k Vol.
- 0.3%$15B–$17.5B$66.5k Vol.
- 0.5%$17.5B–$20B$46.4k Vol.
- 1%1.8%$20B+$77.1k Vol.
- 5%92.7%No IPO before January 2027$42.3k Vol.
Oura’s decision to indefinitely postpone its planned Nasdaq IPO in late September 2026, citing market uncertainty despite strong investor interest and a targeted $13–15.6 billion valuation, drives the 97% market-implied odds against any listing before January 2027. The company reported $1.21 billion in revenue for the nine months ended June 30, 2026, up 74% year-over-year, alongside profitability and over 5.7 million paid members, yet elected to retain its private $11 billion Series E valuation from 2025 rather than proceed. With no subsequent regulatory filings or announcements signaling a near-term relaunch, trader consensus reflects the extended timeline needed for improved IPO conditions. A rapid shift in equity market sentiment or unexpected corporate action could still introduce limited upside risk to the dominant outcome.
Rules
This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.