This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and targeted fall IPO window have anchored trader sentiment around a post-listing market cap clustering near $1.5–2.0 trillion, reflecting the company's leap from a $380 billion Series G valuation in February to $965 billion post-money after the $65 billion Series H close in May. Run-rate revenue exceeding $47 billion, driven by enterprise adoption of Claude models and hyperscaler backing from Amazon and others, underpins the implied multiples near 20x forward sales. Competitive pressure from OpenAI's $852 billion mark and recent SpaceX listing precedents introduce volatility, with closely matched outcome bins highlighting uncertainty over public-market reception, regulatory review timelines, and potential revenue acceleration or dilution effects ahead of pricing.