- Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?88¢
- Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?11¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Incumbent Republican Phil Scott’s strong polling leads and established voter support in Vermont drive the market’s heavy weighting toward a Republican victory. Scott, seeking a sixth term after winning office in 2017, maintains double-digit advantages over Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo in University of New Hampshire surveys conducted through July 2026, even as his job approval reached a recent low near 48 percent. Janoo advanced narrowly from the August 11 Democratic primary but remains relatively unknown statewide. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting Vermont’s pattern of supporting the incumbent governor despite consistent Democratic presidential margins. Traders appear to price in limited risk of an upset before the November 3 general election.