- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?82¢82%
- Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?6¢6%
- Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?4¢4%
- Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?2¢2%
- Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?1¢1%
- Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?<1¢<1%
Morena holds an 84.5% implied probability as the Veracruz Congress election winner due to its coalition's decisive sweep in the recent state legislative contest. Preliminary results from the Programa de Resultados Electorales Preliminares showed the Morena-PVEM-PT alliance securing 29 of 30 majority-relative districts, far outpacing the PAN-PRI-PRD opposition bloc, which retained only isolated seats such as Boca del Río. Morena itself captured roughly 36% of the vote share, bolstered by concurrent victories in the governorship and most federal districts. Subsequent party switches by several legislators from smaller parties further consolidated its position in the incoming legislature. Smaller parties like PVEM, PT, MC, PRI, and PAN register low single-digit probabilities, reflecting their limited independent performance and reliance on alliances that delivered few standalone wins.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 50 members of the Congress of the State of Veracruz are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Veracruz as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Organismo Público Local Electoral del Estado de Veracruz. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Organismo Público Local Electoral del Estado de Veracruz, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Veracruz and Mexico, including the Organismo Público Local Electoral del Estado de Veracruz (https://www.oplever.org.mx/).