- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?23¢
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?46¢
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?64¢
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?73¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
Recent US-Iran military exchanges in late August and early September 2026, including US strikes on Iranian missile sites and Iranian missile responses targeting US facilities in Jordan, have renewed focus on de-escalation prospects following the collapse of the June memorandum of understanding. That interim accord, which included a 60-day negotiation window on the Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program, saw repeated violations and expired without a broader deal. Iran's president stated on September 1 that Tehran would immediately reciprocate if Washington returns to the prior commitments, with mediators Pakistan and Qatar facilitating indirect contacts. Traders are weighing these diplomatic signals against risks of further escalation tied to shipping attacks and sanctions policy.