- Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?14¢
- Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent developments center on internal political pressure following President Zelenskyy’s July 2026 dismissal of popular former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who on August 18 publicly demanded a “legal, safe, and realistic” mechanism for wartime presidential elections, arguing democracy should not be hostage to Russia. Zelenskyy rejected the call days later, describing any vote amid active fighting as a “tsunami” that would split the country and play into Moscow’s hands. Martial law—extended until October 31, 2026—constitutionally bars elections, requiring legislative changes or its lifting plus extensive preparations (months for security, diaspora voting, and infrastructure). Polls show most Ukrainians favor postponing until after a ceasefire or peace deal, while legal experts note significant barriers remain even if amendments pass. These factors sustain trader focus on post-war timing or rare domestic breakthroughs.