- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-31 House seat?7¢
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?93¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Texas' 31st congressional district carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and has been held by the GOP for decades, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Twelve-term incumbent John Carter secured renomination in the March primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote after receiving an endorsement from President Trump, while Democrat Justin Early prevailed in his party's primary. The district's voter base, geography spanning suburban Williamson County through rural areas and Fort Cavazos, and consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and statewide contests underpin the current trader consensus. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event for the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling indicate limited near-term risk to the outcome.