- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-31 House seat?7¢
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?94¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Republican John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote, defeating multiple challengers after receiving an endorsement from President Trump. The district's R+11 Partisan Voter Index, military presence around Fort Hood, and mix of Austin exurbs with rural counties underpin consistent Republican advantages in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election against Democrat Justin Early. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent Republican reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or late developments that would signal vulnerability. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this district indicate limited realistic paths to an upset.