- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?6¢
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-04 House seat?95¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
The TX-04 seat's commanding Republican positioning stems from the district's consistent partisan lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and repeated presidential margins exceeding 20 points for GOP candidates. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March 2026 primary against limited opposition and faces Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November general election. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, with no recent polling or fundraising data signaling a shift in voter base or turnout patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national partisan wave, major scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent, though the district's structural advantages and voting history make such changes improbable before Election Day.