- Tusk out by December 31?7¢7%
Tusk’s coalition maintains a parliamentary majority following the 2023 elections, with the next scheduled vote in fall 2027, limiting formal avenues for removal before December 31. Recent coalition frictions, including a junior partner minister’s resignation, have not fractured the government’s stability, while ongoing clashes with President Nawrocki over constitutional court appointments and judicial reforms have produced protests and accusations but no successful no-confidence motion or resignation trigger. Nawrocki can veto legislation and influence appointments yet lacks unilateral power to dismiss the prime minister. These structural and political realities underpin the 90% trader consensus that no departure will occur by year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Tusk ceases to be Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Tusk's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Tusk and the government of Poland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.