- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on October 23, 2026?7¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 23, 2026?17¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 23, 2026?23¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 23, 2026?30¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on October 23, 2026?19¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.5 on October 23, 2026?6¢
Recent polling averages place President Trump’s job approval in the high 30s, with aggregates from RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin, and others showing figures near 38% amid net ratings of roughly –20 to –23. Low marks on inflation, the economy, and trade remain the dominant drags, with several surveys recording net approval below –28 on those issues. Declines among independents and some Republican subgroups have contributed to the softening, while immigration continues to register as a relative strength. With the October 23 measurement falling just days before the November midterms, traders appear to view the current trajectory as likely to produce a result clustered in the 38–39 range, though modest shifts in the final releases could still alter the precise bucket.
Rules
This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.