- Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat?90¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the TN-07 House seat?11¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Republican control of Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District remains the dominant trader consensus at 90 percent. The seat’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Donald Trump’s 22-point 2024 margin establish a durable structural edge that has held through redistricting. Incumbent Republican Matt Van Epps, who captured the seat in the December 2025 special election, advanced unopposed in the August 2026 primary, while Democrat Darden Copeland emerged from a fragmented field. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and the absence of polling or fundraising signals that would narrow the gap. The 2025 special election’s narrower margin drew attention but did not alter the underlying math for November.