- Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?39¢39%
- Will Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?33¢33%
- Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?27¢27%
- Will Democrats win the Texas Governor election and Republicans win the Texas Senate election?<1¢<1%
Both the Texas governor and U.S. Senate races remain highly competitive heading into early voting, with recent October polls showing Republican Greg Abbott holding a narrow edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa while the open Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico sits essentially tied or within the margin of error. These results, combined with historical patterns of split-ticket voting in the state and voter priorities centered on the economy and immigration, sustain elevated trader probabilities for divided outcomes or less common resolutions captured under "Other." Incumbency advantages for Abbott, Paxton's primary victory over John Cornyn, and Talarico's consistent polling gains have kept the implied probabilities for full sweeps or the reverse split tightly bunched, with upcoming turnout and any final-week shifts in undecided voters the main variables that could widen gaps before November 3.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Texas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.