- Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?20¢
- Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes?46¢
- Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?36¢
- Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes?4¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent Novus polling shows the Social Democrats at 25.8 percent, a statistically significant 4.3-point drop that has narrowed the centre-left opposition's bloc lead over the Tidö government to just 2.6 points with 11 days remaining before the September 13 election. Earlier surveys placed S support near 30-32 percent, but the latest results reflect broad losses across voter groups amid a campaign centered on welfare sustainability, cost of living, security, immigration, and crime. This late tightening, driven by gains for the Liberals and Sweden Democrats, has kept S vote-share probabilities clustered between the 27-30 percent and 30-33 percent ranges. Further separation could emerge from final-week turnout shifts, additional polling releases, or last-minute developments affecting bloc cohesion and the 4 percent parliamentary threshold.