- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?66¢
- Will the Centre Party (C) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Liberals (L) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?31¢
- Will the Green Party (MP) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Left Party (V) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent polling averages ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show the Social Democrats leading at roughly 31 percent, followed closely by the Sweden Democrats near 19–20 percent and the Moderate Party at about 18–19 percent, with smaller parties trailing well behind. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring the Moderates for third place, as their incremental gains and the narrowing bloc gap in late August surveys have tightened the contest with the Sweden Democrats. The Social Democrats remain firmly first while the smaller parties show limited momentum to challenge the top three. Late-campaign developments on cost of living, security, and immigration continue to shape bloc shifts, though the current hierarchy has held steady in the most recent data.