- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?32¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?43¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?21¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?3¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 970m by September 30?3¢
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Strong theatrical legs and record-breaking early momentum for Spider-Man: Brand New Day—including the second-biggest domestic opening ever at $360 million and fastest climb past $800 million—have positioned the Tom Holland-Zendaya tentpole for a potential $900 million-plus domestic finish. Yet the 42% market-implied probability on the 940-950 million band versus 36.5% on sub-940 million reflects tightening weekly holds amid typical late-summer declines, competition from new releases, and the remaining four weeks to the September 30 resolution. Precedent for superhero legs and current per-theater averages suggest the outcome hinges on Labor Day and September performance rather than any single swing factor.