- Will PSOE win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?39¢39%
- Will EH Bildu win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?33¢33%
- Will PNV win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?32¢32%
- Will Vox win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?4¢4%
- Will PP win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?1¢1%
- Will Podemos win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?1¢1%
- Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1%
Recent projections for Biscay's eight congressional seats in Spain's November 29 general election show EH Bildu potentially leading with three deputies, followed by PSOE and PNV at two each and PP with one, reflecting Bildu's gains since 2023 amid national polling volatility. PNV's internal leadership contest in Bizkaia between Ibone Bengoetxea and Elixabete Etxanobe has introduced uncertainty for the regional nationalist party ahead of the vote. EH Bildu continues emphasizing expanded self-government and statute compliance. These factors sustain a competitive field where trader consensus prices PNV highest at 40.5 percent, PSOE at 33 percent, and Bildu at 18.5 percent, with separation likely hinging on final turnout among Basque voters and any late shifts in regional alliances.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Biscay as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Biscay, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Biscay, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).