- Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 San Luis Potosí Congress election?69¢
- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 San Luis Potosí Congress election?30¢
- Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 San Luis Potosí Congress election?9¢
- Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 San Luis Potosí Congress election?4¢
- Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 San Luis Potosí Congress election?<1¢
- Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 San Luis Potosí Congress election?<1¢
Recent polling from October 2026 shows the PVEM leading party preferences in San Luis Potosí by 16–20 points over Morena ahead of the 2027 state elections, which include renewal of the 27-seat Congress. This positioning aligns with the PVEM's current legislative role, including its deputy holding the congress presidency, and recent approval of electoral reforms setting rules for the July 2027 vote. Morena's decision to contest separately without a PVEM alliance has fragmented the former coalition, while opposition parties such as PAN, MC, PT, and PRI register lower single-digit or low-teen support in available surveys. Traders' consensus on the PVEM reflects these sustained polling gaps and institutional standing, with lower probabilities assigned to fragmented challengers.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 27 members of the Congress of the State of San Luis Potosí are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of San Luis Potosí as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of San Luis Potosí and Mexico, including the Consejo Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de San Luis Potosí (https://www.ceepacslp.org.mx/).