- Will SPD win less than 5% of all valid second votes?9¢
- Will SPD win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?30¢
- Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?54¢
- Will SPD win at least 9% of all valid second votes?7¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election shows the SPD holding steady or edging slightly higher in the low-to-mid single digits. The latest Infratest dimap survey placed the party at 8 percent, up one point from July, while earlier August figures from INSA and Pollytix ranged from 6 to 7 percent. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD-FDP coalition, the SPD faces pressure from the AfD’s dominant 42 percent lead and the CDU’s decline to 22 percent, alongside competition for left-leaning voters from the Linke and the risk that FDP and BSW support fragments below the five-percent threshold. These trends have concentrated trader consensus on the 7-9 percent bracket as the most probable outcome.