- Will SPD win less than 5% of all valid second votes?<1¢
- Will SPD win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?35¢
- Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?54¢
- Will SPD win at least 9% of all valid second votes?13¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polls ahead of the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place the SPD vote share in a narrow band around 7–8.5 percent, consistent with the market’s leading 7–9 percent outcome. As the junior partner in the incumbent CDU–SPD–FDP coalition, the SPD has shown limited movement in surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, and Infratest dimap, with results clustered between 7 and 9 percent since mid-summer. AfD dominance near 41–43 percent and CDU support near 22–23 percent have compressed space for smaller parties, while the Linke and Greens remain competitive on the center-left. High undecided shares near 26 percent and the five-percent threshold create modest downside risk reflected in the secondary 5–7 percent probability. No major late-campaign developments have shifted the SPD’s positioning in the final days.