- Will Linke win between 9% and 12% of all valid second votes?41¢
- Will Linke win between 12% and 15% of all valid second votes?38¢
- Will Linke win less than 9% of all valid second votes?11¢
- Will Linke win at least 15% of all valid second votes?8¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polls place Die Linke between 11% and 13% in the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, aligning with its 11.0% result from 2021 and sustaining the market's near-even split between the 9-12% and 12-15% bins. Trader pricing reflects limited movement in surveys through late August alongside roughly 30% undecided voters, which keeps outcomes fluid in the campaign's final week. Die Linke's lead candidate Eva von Angern has emphasized domestic policy themes while other parties focus on the dominant AfD-CDU contest and potential post-election alliances. Minor weekly fluctuations across institutes have prevented either leading bin from pulling decisively ahead.