- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be less than 250,000?5¢5%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 250,000 and 300,000?5¢5%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 300,000 and 350,000?17¢17%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 350,000 and 400,000?52¢52%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 400,000 and 450,000?17¢17%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be 450,000 or more?4¢4%
Trader consensus centers on 350K-400K total votes as the most likely outcome for the Rhode Island U.S. Senate general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting a low-interest midterm in a safely Democratic state. Incumbent Jack Reed holds a consistent 20- to 30-point lead in recent polling averages over Republican Raymond McKay, with the race rated Solid or Safe Democratic across major forecasters and little campaign spending or advertising from either side. Historical patterns show lower turnout in non-presidential years—2020 Senate totals reached roughly 494K while 2024 Senate ballots were closer to 295K—supporting the 350K-400K range when combined with current registered voter levels and modest mobilization. The absence of competitive statewide races or major late developments has kept probabilities stable in this band rather than pushing toward higher or lower bins.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.