- Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?66¢
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?32¢
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Recent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.5% (above consensus) and trimmed mean steady at 3.6%—both well above the RBA’s 2–3% target—have reinforced trader expectations for policy caution ahead of the September 29–30 meeting. The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% in August after three hikes earlier in 2026, citing elevated inflation, upside risks from Middle East conflict and energy prices, and a slowing economy with unemployment edging to 4.5%. Market-implied odds of 63.9% for no change reflect limited fresh data before the September decision and the RBA’s preference to assess transmission of prior tightening, while the 31.1% probability of a 25 bp hike captures the shift in major bank forecasts toward November tightening and the central bank’s explicit willingness to act if inflation risks materialize. Broader financial conditions remain somewhat restrictive, with markets pricing roughly a 50% chance of further tightening by year-end.