- Will CAQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?35¢
- Will PQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?14¢
- Will PLQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?45¢
- Will QS finish in second place in the Quebec general election?5¢
- Will PCQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?2¢
- Will PVQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a narrow lead in popular support ahead of the October 5 election, yet the race for second place remains highly uncertain due to regional fragmentation and vote concentration. The Quebec Liberal Party maintains strong backing among anglophones and allophones, particularly on Montreal Island, which supports its seat projections despite weaker francophone numbers. The Coalition Avenir Québec has closed the gap in recent surveys amid messaging on economic stability during U.S. trade tensions, while the Conservatives and Québec solidaire trail further back. High undecided voters and shifting francophone preferences keep multiple parties competitive for the second-most seats, reflected in balanced trader consensus across outcomes.